Productivity ‘crisis’ deepens as Inflation Index hits five-year high
The UK’s productivity crisis is deepening, according to the latest Business Trends Report by accountants and business advisers BDO LLP.
The latest report shows that while firms are continuing to hire more staff, business output is struggling to pick up. According to BDO, the amount of output produced for each hour worked is therefore likely to slow further, undermining the UK’s low productivity levels.
BDO’s Employment Index – which indicates firms’ employment intentions – is above the long-term trend and has risen 0.1 from February to 102.0. Employment has grown steadily for the last six months and the unemployment rate, currently at 4.7%, is at its lowest in over 40 years.
But despite the positive employment figures, BDO’s Output Index – which indicates how businesses expect their order books to develop over the next three months – has fallen to 95.9. It is well below the long-term growth trend of 100 and is sliding closer to the point of contraction, below 95.0. The figures reveal the severe difficulty the UK economy is having boosting productivity, despite marginal increases announced by the ONS in early April.
The impact poor productivity is having on businesses is also being passed on to household incomes. Earnings growth is almost half what it was before the financial crisis and reflects the low productivity gains.
Meanwhile, BDO’s Inflation Index reached a new five-year high of 105.2 and with prices of goods continuing to adjust following the recent currency depreciation, inflation looks set to rise even further in the coming months. These factors combined indicate that if productivity doesn’t improve quickly, consumer spending will be strained even further.
Martin Gill, Head of BDO in Scotland, said: “Poor productivity performance is one of the UK and Scotland’s biggest economic challenges. Scotland’s Chief Statistician recently announced that the Scottish economy contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2016.
“The Chancellor spoke at length about solving the productivity puzzle when he delivered The Budget, announcing measures to invest in technical education and digital infrastructure to improve productivity. But his measures are very unlikely to be enough.
“BDO’s New Economy report, which makes a number of policy recommendations for a thriving post-Brexit UK economy, also suggests some smaller scale but quick to implement and effective policies – for instance by increasing the annual investment allowance for mid-sized businesses, encouraging degree apprenticeships and increasing funding to help businesses modernise themselves for the challenges ahead.”